Sudden Cardiac Death Prediction in Chagas Heart Disease Patients from ECG-derived Biomarkers of Ventricular Restitution

Ángela Hernández Mendoza1, João Paulo do Vale Madeiro2, Roberto Coury Pedrosa3, Pablo Laguna4, Julia Ramírez1
1University of Zaragoza, 2Federal University of Ceará, 3Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, 4Zaragoza University


Abstract

Background: Chagas heart disease (ChHD) is strongly linked to sudden cardiac death (SCD). The Rassi score is currently the only used clinical score with a strong association with mortality, but it lacks specificity when identifying individuals at risk of SCD. Ventricular restitution dynamics, a key factor in SCD occurrence, are difficult to assess on a large scale due to invasiveness and cost. Therefore, this study aims to develop ECG-based indices for ventricular restitution and evaluate their correlation with SCD risk in ChHD patients. Methods: We analyzed 24-hour ECG recordings from 145 ChHD patients, among whom 41 had the primary SCD endpoint within the follow-up period. We derived ECG restitution indices quantifying changes in QT and T-peak-to-end intervals (Tpe) with heart rate (∆αQT and ∆αTpe), as well as changes in the overall T-wave morphology (TMR), or Tpe morphology (TpeMR). We then evaluated the association of these indices with SCD using survival analyses. Results: Upon comparison between SCD and non-SCD groups, significant differences in clinical variables were found for Rassi score (p < 0.001), ∆αTpe (p=0.015) and TpeMR (p=0.033). Univariate Cox analysis revealed that ∆αTpe > 0.0269 and TpeMR > 0.0254 outcomes were associated with SCD risk, with a hazard ratio of 2.57 (95% [CI]: 1.34-4.91; p = 0.004) and 2.38 (95% CI: 1.25-4.50; p = 0.007), respectively. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard model was constructed by adjusting Rassi Points and only ∆αTpe > 0.0269 showed a significant hazard ratio (2.22; p =0.016). Conclusions: This study demonstrates that ECG indices assessing late-phase ventricular repolarization restitution serve as robust and independent predictors of SCD in ChHD. The fact that TMR and ∆αQT weren't associated with SCD suggest that ChHD may have other effects on ventricular repolarization, manifested on the earlier part of the T-wave, which masks the arrhythmogenic substrate specifically linked to SCD.