A Multidomain Atrial Damage Index for Atrial Fibrillation Recurrence

Leire Moriones1, Blas Echebarria2, Javier Ibero3, Ignacio Garcia-Bolao3, Susana Ravassa4, Pablo Lamata5, Jean R. Bragard6
1Universidad de Navarra, 2Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, 3Clinica Universidad de Navarra, 4CIMA, Universidad de Navarra, 5King's College London, 6University of Navarra


Abstract

Background and Aim: AF recurrence after ablation is a major clinical challenge driven by heterogeneous atrial remodeling not fully captured by single-domain predictors. Current models typically evaluate structural or electrical parameters in isolation, limiting predictive accuracy and interpretability. We propose a Multidomain Atrial Damage Index (MADI), a structured phenotyping framework, and evaluate its association with one-year AF recurrence.

Methods: In a retrospective cohort of 143 patients undergoing first-time AF ablation, MADI (composite score 0–8) integrated four domains: electrical substrate (voltage quintiles from high-density mapping), geometric remodeling (CT-derived volume tertiles), diabetes mellitus, and AF type. Patients were stratified into Stage 1 (≤2), Stage 2 (3–5), and Stage 3 (≥6).

Results: Recurrence increased with stage, most markedly in Stage 3: 28% (14/50) in Stage 1, 32% (22/68) in Stage 2, and 68% (17/25) in Stage 3 (Stage 2 vs 3, p=0.002). Discriminative performance was modest (AUC=0.646, 95% CI 0.55–0.74; OR=1.29, 95% CI 1.08–1.52). Joint phenotype analysis identified E4+G1 (advanced electrical remodeling, intermediate geometric dilation) as the highest-recurrence subgroup (71%, 5/7).

Conclusions: MADI enables interpretable multidomain phenotyping of AF patients. Recurrence rose sharply with cumulative remodeling burden, and specific electrical-geometric interactions were associated with disproportionate risk. This proof-of-concept framework warrants validation in larger, prospective, multi-center cohorts.